IIMS Research Seminar
Professor Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) will be presenting the results of research on «Quantitative assessment of the sanctions impact on production of Russian industries».
Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro is a Professor of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and co-Coordinator of the Research Group on Competition, Law and Economics (GDEC-IE). He served as Deputy Chief Economist and Commissioner at the CADE Tribunal (Administrative Council for Economic Defense), The Brazilian Competition Authority from 2009 to 2014. The areas of expertise are Competition Policy, Applied Microeconometrics, and Labor Markets. Author of more than 50 papers in refereed journals, more than 30 book chapters.
The paper is co-authored by Svetlana Golovanova (Prof. at the Department of Economic Theory and Econometrics, HSE Campus in Nizhny Novgorod; Leading Research Fellow at the Laboratory of Competition and Antimonopoly Policy IIMS HSE) and Dina Korneeva (Senior Research Fellow at the Laboratory of Competition and Antimonopoly Policy IIMS HSE).
Abstract. This paper explores the effects of trade sanctions on the economy, focusing on the case of sanctions imposed on Russia from 2022 and estimating industry output effects across almost ninety industries. Using a novel dataset from Golovanova and Agamirova (2026) we estimate the effect of export sanctions, import sanctions and cost sanctions that are echoed across industries through input-output linkages. We use a modern and flexible empirical specification to explore the effects in dynamics. The idea that economies adapt to sanctions and effectively mute their effects over time is a little explored hypothesis in the literature, that we call the sanctions resilience hypothesis. Our estimates show that, comparing sanction types, export and cost sanctions have actual impact with little output reduction effect from import sanctions. Over time, we see that the cost sanctions effect decreases over time and becomes insignificant, confirming the resilience hypothesis for domestic output industries.
Seminar working language is English.
Please register till May 28th 1 p.m. here: https://forms.yandex.ru/u/6a030d6c02848fdaa4b8f1b4
Looking forward to seeing you at the seminar!
