Eduardo Ribeiro’s Presentation at an IIMS Research Seminar

Professor Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) delivered a talk at the latest research seminar of the Institute for Industrial and Market Studies (IIMS) on the topic "Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Sanctions on Production in Russia at the Sectoral Level".

Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro is a Professor of Economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and Coordinator of the Research Group on Competition, Law and Economics (GDEC‑IE). From 2009 to 2014, he served as Deputy Chief Economist and Commissioner at the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE Tribunal), Brazil’s antitrust authority. Professor Ribeiro’s areas of expertise include competition policy, applied microeconometrics, and labor markets. He has authored over 50 articles in peer‑reviewed journals and more than 30 book chapters.

The presentation "Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Sanctions on Production in Russia at the Sectoral Level" was co‑authored by Svetlana Golovanova (Professor at the Department of Economics and Data Analysis, HSE University — Nizhny Novgorod; Leading Research Fellow at the Laboratory for Competition and Antitrust Policy, IIMS) and Dina Korneeva (Senior Research Fellow at the Laboratory for Competition and Antitrust Policy, IIMS).

The study examines the impact of trade sanctions on the economy, focusing on sanctions imposed against Russia since 2022, and assesses their effect on production output across nearly 90 sectors. Using a new dataset by Golovanova and Agamirova (2026), the authors evaluate the impact of:

• export sanctions;
• import sanctions;
• sanctions entailing additional costs, which affect various sectors through input‑output linkages.

The authors employ a modern and flexible empirical specification to study these effects over time.

The idea that the economy adapts to sanctions and effectively mitigates their impact over time is an under‑researched hypothesis in the literature, which the authors refer to as the sanctions resilience hypothesis.

The results show that, when comparing types of sanctions:

• export sanctions and sanctions entailing additional costs have a real impact;
• import sanctions have a negligible effect on reducing production output.

Over time, the impact of sanctions entailing additional costs diminishes and becomes insignificant, supporting the resilience hypothesis for domestic production sectors.