Research Seminar on Diversity and Development Chris Berry "Leadership or Luck? Randomization Inference for Leader Effects"

HSE International Center for the Study of Institutions and Development (ICSID) and NES Center for the Study of Diversity and Social Interactions are pleased to announce their next joint Research Seminar on Diversity and Development.The event is held jointly with the seminar “Political Economy”.

Chris Berry, Professor at the University of Chicago, will present his paper " Leadership or Luck? Randomization Inference for Leader Effects "(co-authored by Anthony Fowler).

The seminar will take place in the HSE building at 26-4 Shabolovka str., room 5309, at 5.00 p.m. on Thursday, May 31, 2018.

Working language of the seminar is English.

We would like to ask everyone who requires an HSE pass to send an e-mail to Oksana Antsiferova oantsiferova(at)hse.ru (stating your name, surname, your affiliation and contact e-mail address) until 5 p.m.,May 30.

Abstract: Anecdotal evidence suggests that some political leaders are more effective than others, causing better outcomes for their citizens. However, observed differences in outcomes between leaders could be attributable to chance variation. To solve this inferential problem, we develop RIFLE, a quantitative test of leader effects. RIFLE allows researchers to test a null hypothesis of no leader effect and also estimate the proportion of variation in an outcome variable attributable to leaders vs. other factors, and it provides more statistical power and more reliable inferences than other strategies. To demonstrate the substantive value of RIFLE, we implement it for world leaders, U.S. governors, and U.S. mayors and for several outcomes. RIFLE can be applied to virtually any setting with leaders and an objective outcome of interest, so its continued application should improve our understanding of where, when, and why leaders matter.

We look forward to seeing you!

Kind regards,

ICSID and NES CSDSI